Toronto is often described as “full,” “built out,” or out of room for growth, with some suggesting that future growth should be directed to smaller cities that “have more room.” This study, developed with data from Ratio.City, tested that assumption.
We asked: what could happen if Toronto looked at land use capacity near transit differently?
By making better use of areas already served by rapid transit, streetcars, and frequent bus routes, the city could support more housing choices, more complete communities, and more welcoming neighbourhoods for people at different stages of life.
The analysis reveals that Toronto is far from physically “maxed out.” Under the hypothetical capacity scenario, the city could accommodate up to 7.6 million new homes and 12 million residents across 273 km² of transit-accessible land. This finding reframes the housing conversation: the question is not whether Toronto has space to grow, but how that growth can be planned in a more equitable, connected, and transit-supportive way.
In 2024, Toronto’s Official Plan directed most intensification to just 8.5% of the city’s land, primarily areas designated Mixed Use Areas and Apartment Neighbourhoods. Meanwhile, many Neighbourhoods areas remained largely protected from intensification, even where they were located close to rapid transit, frequent bus service, streetcars, parks, schools, and other urban infrastructure.
This created a disconnect between where growth was permitted and where growth could be supported.
As Toronto continues to face housing pressure, limiting new homes to a narrow portion of the city places more pressure on a small number of sites and corridors. It also restricts the ability to create more complete, mixed-income, and transit-oriented communities across the city.
To understand the untapped housing capacity that could exist near transit if land use permissions were reconsidered, We developed a city-wide analysis. The work combined spatial analysis, transit proximity mapping, land use review, and redevelopment suitability screening.
The study focused on lands within walking distance of existing and planned transit, including rapid transit, GO, LRT, subway, streetcars, and frequent bus routes. It considered areas within 400 and 800 metres of rapid transit (GO, LRT, subway) and 250 and 400 metres of frequent transit (streetcars and frequent buses). Lands unlikely to redevelop, such as areas affected by heritage constraints, steep slopes, or other major limitations, were excluded from the analysis.
Using data from Ratio.City, a division of Esri Canada, the analysis identified suitable areas for potential growth and applied a conservative assumption that 30% of the land would be undevelopable.
The resulting map organized the city into clear categories, including areas closest to transit stations, areas slightly farther from transit but still well-connected, open spaces, and lands outside the study area. This approach made Toronto’s potential capacity easier to understand and discuss.
By looking at land near transit more comprehensively, the study shows how Toronto can plan for more housing choices, support more complete communities, and make better use of existing public investment in transit and infrastructure.
Halting growth will not solve Toronto’s housing and affordability challenges. A more practical approach is to plan growth where it can be best supported: close to transit, services, and daily needs.
